Will Digital TV Mean Better TV?   

The new era is likely to start slowly.

Digital TV is coming. But probably not soon.

Last April the FCC gave TV broadcasters licenses for digital television transmission. Today we have analog TV sent by waves; digital TV will be sent by bits. But the FCC left the process of innovation open, and we
really do not have much of an idea of what form this new TV world will take.

The FCC put off dealing with requirements for cable TV and satellite-delivered television, expecting that innovation by the broadcast networks would force the hand of their rivals.

Even with this great present from the FCC, broadcasters are divided on what to do. Should they each offer a single high-definition TV channel? Or should a station carve up its new spectrum space to air several channels of "standard" TV that looks much like contemporary programming?

CBS is leading the push for a high-definition TV solution; ABC and Fox seem inclined to embrace multichannel standard television.

It is easy to imagine a world of utter confusion. Currently there are at least 18 possible digital formats out there. Think about the frustration of buying Beta or VHS, IBM or Apple – magnified 10 times over.

Meanwhile, we all will be guinea pigs in a major technological and social experiment. Will the new digital TV world transform the current passive tube experience into an interactive paradise? Or will we simply see and hear HDTV sitcoms, sports and the rest in sharper images and with purer sounds?

Whatever the outcome, consumers will notice a big difference when their credit card bill arrives. TV sets have long been relatively cheap appliances. The digital marvels will be tagged in the thousands of dollars. One Texas Instruments digital set was just announced at a price of $14,000. And you will have to ante up more for a new VCR as well.

And only those living in big cities will get TV programs in digital. Even the FCC's optimistic plan calls for the rollout to be first launched in New York, L.A., Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and other major cities.

The completion of the innovation – projected by the FCC for 2006 – won't happen on time; there are simply too many basic problems out there.

For example, three-
quarters of all TV towers in the U.S. will have to be replaced, at a total cost of a couple billion dollars. Where to put these 1,000-plus feet behemoths will undoubtedly become a hot local issue over the next few years.

During the 1940s and 1950s TV towers were placed at the edge of town. That "edge" is now typically surrounded by expensive homes, and no current owner wants new construction in his or her backyard.

ýill digital TV mean better TV? Here one should pay close attention to the composition and politics of the FCC-mandated Presidential Advisory Committee on Public Interest Obligations, which will be asked to recommend ways broadcasters can serve their country.

Vice President Al Gore has come out for more public service obligations, quoting then-Sen. Bob Dole, who before the 1996 election
labeled allocating digital channels to current broadcasters as a "billion-dollar giveaway..a big, big corporate welfare project."

Broadcasters object both to any new requirements and to being tagged as corporate welfare recipients. They want free licenses – with no new obligations. CBS Chairman Michael Jordan told the National Association of Broadcasters convention last April that he opposed any requirements for free time for politicians during campaigns or any increase in public service announcements.

But in the first round of what promises to be long negotiations, FCC Chairman Reed Hundt asked the networks to set aside 60 seconds of prime time for free public service announcements. The networks note that this would cost them hundreds of millions of dollars, since the average 30-second spot in prime time costs more than a quarter of a million dollars.

Broadcasters invoke the analogy of the coming of color TV, where nothing new was demanded. NAB President Eddie Fritts told Broadcasting & Cable that "broadcasters are committed to delivering digital TV to consumers faster than the industry transitioned from black-and-white to color television," which took about 15 years.

Yet promises of a new world of television are easier to make than to deliver. Remember that three years ago the largest media company in the world, Time Warner, rolled out an experiment for full-service TV in Orlando, Florida, promising a 500-channel TV world for every household. This past May, Time Warner quietly dropped the experiment and absorbed nearly a billion-dollar loss.

I think we will eventually have digital TV in every household, but we are a long way away from a new world of television.